trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 08 | $16 | +$3 | +17% |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 14 | $30 | +$3 | +9% |
| Kraken vs. Panthers | Mar 24 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Raptors vs. Suns | Mar 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Magic | Mar 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Devils vs. Rangers | Mar 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Panthers vs. Kraken | Mar 23 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Grizzlies vs. 76ers | Mar 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 146.5 | Mar 23 | $106 | −$106 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Heat | Mar 23 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Jets vs. Rangers | Mar 23 | $2 | +$2 | +108% |
| Flyers vs. Sharks | Mar 22 | $1 | +$1 | +108% |
| Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets | Mar 21 | $2 | +$2 | +122% |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | Mar 17 | $1 | +$1 | +127% |
| Pistons vs. Raptors | Mar 16 | $2 | +$3 | +150% |
| Nuggets vs. Lakers | Mar 15 | $1 | +$1 | +127% |
| Bruins vs. Capitals | Mar 15 | $1 | +$2 | +117% |
| Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,400 on the final trading day of January | Feb 28 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +16.7% | +5.6% | 100% | 100% | +5.6% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +16.7% | +5.6% | 100% | 100% | +5.6% |
| ≤90d | 17 | +5.1% | -4.9% | 53% | 47% | -61.2% |
| all | 18 | +4.8% | -5.2% | 56% | 44% | -60.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.2% | 44% | -60.9% |
| 10% | -14.2% | 39% | -64.6% |
| 15% | -22.5% | 39% | -68.0% |
| 20% | -30.1% | 39% | -71.2% |