Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A4 0xa451…9a87 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$82 (+7%) realized +$86 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$887now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$45
world 15% +$17
other 12% +$22
tech 9% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +39.6% +26.3% 100% 100% +23.7%
≤30d 2 +39.6% +26.3% 100% 100% +23.7%
≤90d 2 +39.6% +26.3% 100% 100% +23.7%
all 2 +39.6% +26.3% 100% 100% +23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.3% 100% +23.7%
10% +14.2% 50% +11.9%
15% +3.2% 50% +1.1%
20% -6.9% 50% -8.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$887
Realized+$86
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions9
Markets (closed)2 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 77¢ 76¢ $152 $151 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 98¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Andrey Rublev 62¢ 64¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Wimbledon WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Daria Snigur Elina Svitolina 72¢ 71¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $99 $96 −$3 (-3%)
Wimbledon WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Robin Montgomery Robin Montgomery 63¢ 60¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Emma Raducanu 69¢ 56¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Wimbledon ATP: Adrian Mannarino vs Titouan Droguet Adrian Mannarino 60¢ 62¢ $76 $80 +$3 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 54¢ 64¢ $64 $75 +$11 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $131 +$22 +17%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $101 +$63 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 77¢ $153 1h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 68¢ $100 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $64 18h
Wimbledon ATP: Adrian Mannarino vs Titouan Droguet BUY Adrian Mannarino 60¢ $77 25h
Wimbledon WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Daria Snigur BUY Elina Svitolina 72¢ $101 25h
Wimbledon WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery 63¢ $101 25h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 62¢ $101 25h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 69¢ $101 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $131 29h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 61¢ $101 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $100 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $887.04 · official $887.06 (match) · 13 history records