Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:31:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa451…294b politics 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%5W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$5
crypto 21% −$1
sports 21% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 13% 0% -9.7%
all 34 -0.1% -9.7% 15% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses5 / 29
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage92d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $208 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $138 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $137 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $68 −$1 -1%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $208 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $69 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $209 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $70 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 02 $70 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $70 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $214 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 26 $70 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $213 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $70 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $143 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $145 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $73 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $73 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $73 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $73 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $73 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $146 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $73 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 04 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 01 $490 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $491 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $492 −$2 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $492 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 29 $492 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $493 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 5d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $67 18d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $67 18d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 20d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 20d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 21d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $69 21d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $69 23d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $69 23d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $69 25d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 25d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 26d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $70 26d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $70 27d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 27d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 30d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 30d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 31d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 31d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 33d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $70 33d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $70 34d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 34d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 40d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.97 · official $67.97 (match) · 176 history records