Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:56:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A4 0xa451…449e sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$945 (-17%) realized −$606 · open −$339
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,100per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$111est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$661now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -5.0% -14.1% 33% 33% -1.1%
≤30d 3 -5.0% -14.1% 33% 33% -1.1%
≤90d 3 -5.0% -14.1% 33% 33% -1.1%
all 3 -5.0% -14.1% 33% 33% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 33% -1.1%
10% -22.3% 33% -10.6%
15% -29.8% 33% -19.2%
20% -36.7% 33% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,405 vs −$502 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$661
Realized−$606
Unrealized−$339
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$111
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,100
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 56¢ 37¢ $1,000 $661 −$339 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $1,337 +$1,405 +105%
Panama vs. England: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $505 −$500 -99%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $2,495 −$503 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1,013 37m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 90¢ $2,743 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 43¢ $1,337 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Panama vs. England: 1st Half O BUY 25¢ $150 2h
Panama vs. England: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $505 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $1,992 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $2,495 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $660.71 · official $1,178.57 · 7 history records