Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:06:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa453…b665 sports 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12,851 (+7%) realized +$12,903 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate69%101W / 46L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$1,160per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$436est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2,427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$4,389
14 days+$12,970
30 days+$6,074
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% +$6,749
crypto 35% +$5,634
politics 16% +$331
other 7% −$1,048
world 6% +$867
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +14.9% +4.0% 71% 62% +2.6%
≤30d 94 +7.2% -3.0% 68% 51% -3.0%
≤90d 119 +13.7% +2.8% 68% 52% -1.9%
all 147 +10.4% -0.1% 69% 48% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 48% -2.9%
10% -9.7% 37% -12.2%
15% -18.4% 31% -20.7%
20% -26.4% 26% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$1,203) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$353 vs −$502 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$2,427
Realized+$12,903
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses101 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$436
Open positions4
Markets (closed)147 / 151
History coverage193d
Avg bet$1,160
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 78¢ $1,394 $1,317 −$76 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 74¢ 74¢ $740 $735 −$5 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 42¢ 46¢ $210 $227 +$17 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 27¢ 30¢ $135 $147 +$12 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $1,127 +$29 +3%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $408 +$71 +17%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $673 +$14 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $273 +$327 +120%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $366 −$364 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $244 +$256 +105%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $430 +$570 +133%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $770 +$730 +95%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $420 +$410 +98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $1,590 −$790 -50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $325 +$175 +54%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $617 +$383 +62%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $283 +$141 +50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $4,410 +$863 +20%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $264 +$236 +90%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $256 −$250 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $222 −$222 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $97 −$96 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6,374 +$1,589 +25%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,350 −$2,341 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $368 +$132 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $295 +$205 +70%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $185 −$185 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $225 −$220 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,704 +$296 +17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $353 +$147 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $104 +$246 +238%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $509 +$191 +38%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $215 +$285 +133%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $165 +$105 +64%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $400 +$100 +25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3,875 +$1,125 +29%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $810 −$809 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $816 +$484 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $310 +$190 +61%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $970 +$30 +3%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $479 +$521 +109%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$29 +28%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 10 $343 −$343 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1,048 +$21 +2%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $730 +$839 +115%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $328 +$272 +83%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,513 +$4 +0%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $700 +$42 +6%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $297 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 88¢ $1,132 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 89¢ $25 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 95¢ $288 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 95¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 95¢ $190 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 84¢ $137 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 84¢ $4 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 84¢ $59 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 78¢ $1 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 78¢ $8 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 78¢ $2 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 78¢ $198 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $574 14h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $673 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $135 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $138 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $179 26h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 79¢ $4 26h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 79¢ $4 26h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 79¢ $18 26h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 79¢ $4 26h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 79¢ $56 26h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 79¢ $7 26h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 79¢ $7 26h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 79¢ $79 26h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 79¢ $4 26h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 79¢ $4 26h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 86¢ $428 31h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 86¢ $693 31h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 85¢ $0 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,427.41 · official $2,427.41 (match) · 1204 history records