Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:09:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A4 0xa458…2306 other 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-3%) realized −$33 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%30W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$17
14 days+$5
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$91
crypto 31% −$67
sports 9% +$85
finance 2% +$6
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +10.6% +0.0% 44% 44% -12.3%
≤30d 32 +15.0% +4.0% 47% 47% -4.9%
≤90d 64 -2.9% -12.1% 45% 41% -13.9%
all 66 -2.4% -11.7% 45% 41% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 41% -13.6%
10% -20.1% 35% -21.8%
15% -27.8% 30% -29.4%
20% -34.9% 24% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses30 / 36
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions14
Markets (closed)66 / 81
History coverage101d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $81 $82 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-32%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $64 +$38 +60%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $81 −$19 -24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$31 -61%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $21 +$10 +46%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$23 +442%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$4 +46%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +89%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $61 +$8 +14%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $57 +$9 +16%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $42 +$15 +36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$6 -42%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$12 +595%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $18 +$20 +108%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $30 +$21 +70%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $3 +$5 +134%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 22 $4 −$2 -44%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $25 −$12 -46%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $10 −$8 -76%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 15 $26 +$6 +24%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 08 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 08 $23 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 08 $25 −$2 -7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 07 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 07 $45 +$7 +16%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $19 +$26 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 07 $15 −$14 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $82 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 18h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $64 22h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $62 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $30 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $8 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 32¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $28 3d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $6 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 5d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $18 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.41 · official $132.41 (match) · 278 history records