Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:56:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A4 0xa458…24df other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$448 (-17%) realized −$441 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$593now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$293
7 days−$293
14 days−$293
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$722
sports 39% +$568
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -5.0% -14.0% 31% 31% -31.9%
≤30d 15 -5.8% -14.8% 33% 33% -16.1%
≤90d 15 -5.8% -14.8% 33% 33% -16.1%
all 15 -5.8% -14.8% 33% 33% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 33% -16.1%
10% -22.9% 33% -24.1%
15% -30.4% 33% -31.4%
20% -37.2% 33% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$107 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$593
Realized−$441
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage20d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $500 $499 −$1 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $56 +$91 +163%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $36 −$35 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $203 +$197 +97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $66 +$116 +175%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 19 $41 +$80 +196%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $15 $0 -0%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1 $0 -20%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 18 $313 −$307 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $214 −$209 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Bosnia and He Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$78 -76%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $562 +$436 +78%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $298 −$291 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $512 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 86¢ $147 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 32¢ $56 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 11¢ $36 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $400 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL 94¢ $182 3h
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $31 5h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $121 5h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 6h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 26¢ $15 7h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 33¢ $66 7h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $41 7h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 8h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 8h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Under 21¢ $1 8h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $1 8h
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $313 27h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $214 30h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Bosnia and He SELL 0¢ $0 31h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $24 31h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 32h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Bosnia and He BUY 9¢ $103 32h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $998 20d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $562 20d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 20d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 16¢ $297 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $593.29 · official $593.29 (match) · 27 history records