Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:48:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa45b…9082 other 1302 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1300W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$16
sports 46% +$6
world 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 329 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 538 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 1143 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 1301 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×247.68 per $1 lost it wins $247.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1300 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1301 / 1302
History coverage100d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1301 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
João Félix: 1+ shots on target Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Dumb" during Pennsylvania events? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Portugal vs Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Bernardo Silva: 2+ shots on target Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
José Sá: 3+ saves Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Rúben Neves: 3+ goals + assists Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
ITF Asuncion: Agustina Soto Neira vs Noelia Zeballos Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Poljicak vs. Nagal: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Neel/Olmos vs. Hozumi/Wu: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Sramkova vs. Hruncakova: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria - Completed match? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Neel/Olmos vs. Hozumi/Wu: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Vasilev vs. Visker: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Zanolini vs. Barendse: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 9INE (-6.5) vs Sashi Esport (+6.5) Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Semenistaja vs Siskova Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yexin Ma vs Erika Andreeva Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 3? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Infinite (-3.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+ Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Esports (-12.5) vs AM Gaming (+12. Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Naef vs. Garland: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
Pigossi vs. Dodin: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: REJECT (-2.5) vs QT DIG∞ (+2.5) Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Meza vs. Papoe: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Ibrahim Maza: 4+ shots Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Nadhir Benbouali: 4+ shots Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Mousa Ta'mari: 2+ goals + assists Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 4+ shots Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Blaze Alexander: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Nicolas Jackson: 4+ shots Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Austin Hedges: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Anthony Seigler: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Trezeguet: 2+ assists Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Juan Manuel Sanabria: 2+ assists Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Rodrigo Aguirre: 1+ goals Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots on target Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Shea Langeliers: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Michael Lorenzen: Strikeouts O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Ali Reza Beiranvand: 5+ saves Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alba Berlin win Germany BBL? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs Verso Time - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Dennis Eckert: 1+ shots on target Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Diego Moreira: 1+ goals Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Chase Burns: Strikeouts O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Patrick Bailey: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $4 $0 +0%
Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
João Félix: 1+ shots on target BUY Yes 100¢ $5 12m
Bernardo Silva: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will Trump say "Dumb" during Pennsylvania events? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? BUY Under 100¢ $5 2h
Rúben Neves: 3+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
José Sá: 3+ saves BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
ITF Asuncion: Agustina Soto Neira vs Noelia Zeballos BUY Noelia Zeballos 100¢ $5 3h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Portugal vs BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 4h
Neel/Olmos vs. Hozumi/Wu: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 4h
Poljicak vs. Nagal: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 4h
Sramkova vs. Hruncakova: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 4h
Neel/Olmos vs. Hozumi/Wu: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 4h
Vasilev vs. Visker: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 5h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria - Completed match? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 6h
Zanolini vs. Barendse: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 6h
Set 2 Winner: Semenistaja vs Siskova BUY Siskova 100¢ $5 7h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 8h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yexin Ma vs Erika Andreeva BUY Erika Andreeva 100¢ $5 8h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 9INE (-6.5) vs Sashi Esport (+6.5) BUY Sashi Esport 100¢ $5 8h
Naef vs. Garland: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 10h
Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 3? BUY Over 100¢ $5 10h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Infinite (-3.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+ BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 100¢ $5 10h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Esports (-12.5) vs AM Gaming (+12. BUY AM Gaming 100¢ $5 10h
Pigossi vs. Dodin: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 10h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: REJECT (-2.5) vs QT DIG∞ (+2.5) BUY REJECT 100¢ $5 12h
Meza vs. Papoe: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 100¢ $3 12h
Ibrahim Maza: 4+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 14h
Nadhir Benbouali: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 16h
Mousa Ta'mari: 2+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 2864 history records