Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:16:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa45b…4e3a politics 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$20
politics 35% −$17
sports 8% +$55
crypto 7% −$2
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 97 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 131 +1.8% -7.9% 10% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 5% -9.5%
10% -16.7% 4% -18.2%
15% -24.8% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.2% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×10.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)131 / 131
History coverage132d
Avg bet$317
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 131 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $44 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $251 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $289 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $48 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $242 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $284 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $243 $0 -0%
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $213 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $285 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $236 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $242 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $248 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $238 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $240 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $280 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $579 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $285 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 07 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $216 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $593 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $233 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $270 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $231 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $224 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $213 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $297 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $237 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 21 $264 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $275 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $941 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $299 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $251 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $265 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $280 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $239 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $312 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $294 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 1h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 42h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 44h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 47h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 21d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 21d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 21d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 22d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 22d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 23d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $48 23d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $48 24d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $242 24d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $242 25d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $289 26d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $289 27d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $284 27d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $284 28d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $243 28d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $243 28d
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $213 29d
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $213 31d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $285 31d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $285 32d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $236 33d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $236 33d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $242 34d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $242 35d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $248 35d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $248 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 431 history records