Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:54:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa45d…93f1
sports · 487 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$26 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$137 · open +$111
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$451
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$111
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses229 / 227
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions31
Markets (closed)456 / 487
History coverage42d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 31 History 456 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$57
14 days−$108
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 100¢ $42 $100 +$57 (+135%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 52¢ 99¢ $47 $89 +$42 (+90%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 100¢ $40 $60 +$20 (+51%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 75¢ 56¢ $75 $56 −$20 (-26%)
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B struggletony 54¢ 52¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 35¢ 100¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+185%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage SPARTA 51¢ 52¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Yes 30¢ 99¢ $3 $11 +$7 (+229%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? No 86¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Dripmen (BO5) - UKIC Masters Division Playoffs The Last Resort 74¢ 80¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? No 75¢ 68¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Yes 22¢ 34¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+55%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Yes 33¢ 100¢ $2 $7 +$4 (+203%)
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Group B Oxuji Esports 67¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? No 87¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? No 83¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+177%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? No 88¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? No 73¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs F5 Esports 38¢ 42¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: gothboiclique vs Sangal ALTERS (BO3) - TESFED League Play-In gothboiclique 69¢ 50¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? No 88¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 13? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +40%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $19 +$16 +82%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $7 +$6 +82%
Counter-Strike: Minkens finest vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $6 +$2 +35%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $16 −$15 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $33 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED League Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $16 +$20 +128%
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Alzon (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $19 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +54%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $11 +$4 +35%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 12 $3 $0 +16%
Dota 2: NGNB vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Open Quali Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 12 $12 +$13 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$3 +61%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - The International Southeast Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 11 $14 +$4 +26%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $9 −$4 -39%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $15 +$10 +66%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $16 +$8 +47%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $27 +$21 +76%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 11 $3 +$2 +54%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $8 +$12 +158%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $8 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $10 +$14 +144%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Ding Cuts (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Jun 11 $4 +$6 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 11 $14 −$13 -98%
Dota 2: Ignite vs Ttgame (BO3) - The International North America Open Jun 11 $2 +$3 +194%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 11 $9 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$3 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 10 $3 +$2 +59%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $5 +$2 +47%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 10 $3 +$2 +96%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Jun 10 $13 +$3 +24%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 10 $2 +$4 +152%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 95% −$110
weather 4% +$75
other 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 40¢ $8 37m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL SPARTA 53¢ $3 51m
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group BUY struggletony 54¢ $19 53m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $22 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $53 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Dripmen (BO5) - UKIC Masters Divisi BUY The Last Resort 74¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 39¢ $8 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY SPARTA 51¢ $8 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY SPARTA 52¢ $7 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $40 4h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $27 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $33 5h
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ SELL OLDBOYS- 100¢ $36 5h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St SELL Ursa 100¢ $13 7h
Counter-Strike: Minkens finest vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B SELL Nexus 100¢ $8 7h
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY F5 Esports 38¢ $3 7h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $16 7h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $22 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $33 8h
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED League SELL FUT Turkuaz 20¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $0 12h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 100¢ $36 12h
Counter-Strike: Minkens finest vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B BUY Nexus 74¢ $6 12h
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Alzon (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY METANOIA WOLVES 59¢ $12 14h
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group BUY struggletony 61¢ $6 14h
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ BUY OLDBOYS- 54¢ $19 15h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 100¢ $15 16h
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B BUY XI Esport 64¢ $10 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 +2.4% -7.3% 53% 52% -8.5%
≤30d 380 +1.0% -8.6% 49% 49% -10.4%
≤90d 456 +2.3% -7.5% 50% 50% -10.3%
all 456 +2.3% -7.5% 50% 50% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 50% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 46% -18.8%
15% -24.4% 40% -26.7%
20% -31.8% 31% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $450.58 · official $450.26 (match) · 1093 history records