Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:30:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A4 0xa45e…c0b0 crypto 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$122 (+5%) realized +$122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate58%63W / 46L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$83
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +10.5% -0.0% 67% 67% -1.8%
≤30d 3 +10.5% -0.0% 67% 67% -1.8%
≤90d 109 -6.7% -15.6% 58% 49% -6.2%
all 109 -6.7% -15.6% 58% 49% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 49% -6.2%
10% -23.7% 40% -15.2%
15% -31.1% 28% -23.4%
20% -37.8% 17% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses63 / 46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage78d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 01 $46 −$8 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 30 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 30 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 30 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 22 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 22 $10 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 22 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 22 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 22 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 21 $42 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 21 $38 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 21 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 21 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 21 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 16 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 16 $5 +$8 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 15 $30 +$12 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 15 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 15 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 14 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 14 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 14 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 13 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 13 $20 +$12 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 13 $70 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 13 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 13 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 13 $30 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 13 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 13 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 13 $5 +$7 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 13 $20 +$7 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $4 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $15 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $4 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $14 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $13 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $3 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $18 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $17 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $42 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.75 · official $34.75 (match) · 232 history records