Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:12:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa461…878a
world · 170 markets active 0h ago
5.5score
+$2,180 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,203 · open −$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$159
Realized+$2,203
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses71 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions9
Markets (closed)161 / 170
History coverage83d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 9 History 161 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$126
7 days−$126
14 days−$2,198
30 days+$2,376
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Josh Hokit 79¢ 78¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Under 82¢ 81¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? No 74¢ 74¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 52¢ 50¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Under 90¢ 84¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? No 87¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Casper Ruud 28¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann Jil Teichmann 29¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Dabrowski/Stefani vs Eikeri/Gleason Eikeri/Gleason 25¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Alexander Bublik 73¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 59¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $81 −$4 -5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $20 +$5 +23%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 +$4 +21%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$6 +27%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $60 −$60 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $20 +$4 +20%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $40 +$16 +40%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $20 +$1 +5%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $20 −$18 -89%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$3 +6%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $50 +$5 +11%
Little Rock: Colton Smith vs Michael Mmoh Jun 01 $100 +$6 +6%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $509 −$26 -5%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $303 +$1 +0%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Dabrowski/Stefani vs Eikeri/Gleason May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 31 $50 $0 -0%
Spread: CD Palestino (-2.5) May 31 $51 −$15 -30%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $101 −$50 -49%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5 May 31 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $51 −$7 -13%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) May 31 $203 −$20 -10%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) May 31 $51 −$6 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 31 $175 +$44 +25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? May 31 $54 +$52 +96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? May 31 $182 −$118 -65%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 31 $360 −$45 -13%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May? May 31 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 31 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 31 $524 −$524 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 31 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 31 $525 −$525 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 2AM ET May 31 $51 +$20 +40%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $153 −$150 -98%
ITF Wuning: Alexandra Shubladze vs Hina Inoue May 31 $50 +$1 +2%
Centurion: Giles Hussey vs Edward Winter May 31 $51 +$53 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 31 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 31 $207 −$105 -51%
Will SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw? May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 31 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 31 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 31 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 31 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 31 $50 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 17 $605 −$76 -13%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 17 $180 −$113 -63%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 17 $35 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 33% −$112
other 23% +$3,156
sports 15% −$445
crypto 14% −$218
politics 9% +$76
finance 3% +$225
culture 2% −$363
tech 1% −$139
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 53¢ $19 28m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $20 48m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 52¢ $19 49m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $20 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $20 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $20 9h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $20 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 52¢ $19 10h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 53¢ $19 11h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $20 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $20 11h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 53¢ $19 11h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $20 11h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 53¢ $19 11h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $20 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $20 11h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 72¢ $20 11h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 72¢ $20 11h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $20 11h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $20 11h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $20 11h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $20 11h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 78¢ $20 11h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 74¢ $20 11h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $21 21h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 7¢ $2 22h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $20 23h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 83¢ $20 23h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $20 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -35.2% -41.3% 46% 38% -39.4%
≤30d 68 -4.8% -13.8% 47% 24% +11.4%
≤90d 161 -6.9% -15.8% 44% 27% -0.1%
all 161 -6.9% -15.8% 44% 27% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 27% -0.1%
10% -23.9% 16% -9.7%
15% -31.2% 9% -18.4%
20% -38.0% 4% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.95 · official $158.95 (match) · 815 history records