Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa464…6170 sports 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-1%) realized −$52 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate71%84W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$24
sports 17% −$29
economics 15% −$20
other 12% +$19
politics 5% +$14
crypto 3% −$11
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -5.7% -14.7% 91% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 118 +9.2% -1.2% 71% 29% -10.7%
all 118 +9.2% -1.2% 71% 29% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 29% -10.7%
10% -10.7% 19% -19.3%
15% -19.3% 17% -27.1%
20% -27.2% 14% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses84 / 34
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions10
Markets (closed)118 / 128
History coverage77d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $65 $69 +$4 (+6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 85¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 76¢ 77¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 51¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 82¢ 80¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $15 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $25 $0 +0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $75 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $89 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $14 +$1 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $130 +$2 +1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $25 +$2 +9%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 29 $25 +$2 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $25 +$15 +59%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $224 +$35 +16%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 08 $10 +$4 +43%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 08 $15 +$6 +39%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $510 +$5 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $3 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $9 $0 +2%
Spread: Rockets (-8.5) Apr 25 $10 +$2 +17%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $5 +$3 +67%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $10 +$3 +26%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) Apr 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 25 $3 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $79 +$3 +4%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Apr 22 $5 +$4 +82%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 22 $5 +$1 +11%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins Apr 22 $5 +$1 +14%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $15 −$13 -90%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Apr 22 $20 −$3 -14%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 22 $5 −$5 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $7 +$6 +79%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 20 $150 +$15 +10%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 20 $5 −$5 -98%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 19 $25 +$2 +10%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $531 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $9 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $10 $0 +4%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs 3DMAX (+1.5) Apr 13 $10 $0 +4%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Apr 13 $15 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs RED Canids (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 13 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $192 $0 +0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qual Apr 13 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 13 $13 $0 +1%
Bucks vs. 76ers Apr 13 $14 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 100¢ $25 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $15 14d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 15d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $15 17d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $15 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $24 22d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 68¢ $27 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $14 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $25 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $25 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $25 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $25 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $25 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $25 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $25 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $15 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $15 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $15 31d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers $1 44d
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) SELL Lakers 88¢ $7 44d
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) BUY Lakers 63¢ $5 44d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 31¢ $5 44d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Timberwolves 47¢ $5 44d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 44d
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) SELL Lakers 76¢ $8 44d
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) BUY Lakers 50¢ $5 44d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.27 · official $288.28 (match) · 486 history records