Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:58:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa465…81cc sports 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$316 (+3%) realized +$302 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate42%25W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$724
7 days+$756
14 days+$1,267
30 days+$1,277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$342
crypto 13% −$132
world 8% +$51
other 6% +$457
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -19.2% -26.9% 19% 19% +16.5%
≤30d 27 -39.2% -45.0% 19% 15% +19.6%
≤90d 59 -26.0% -33.1% 42% 27% -3.2%
all 59 -26.0% -33.1% 42% 27% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 27% -3.2%
10% -39.5% 24% -12.5%
15% -45.3% 17% -20.9%
20% -50.7% 15% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$66 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized+$302
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses25 / 34
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage81d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 82¢ 92¢ $117 $131 +$14 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $357 +$658 +184%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $203 −$37 -18%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$10 -49%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $663 +$217 +33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 20 $447 −$66 -15%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 20 $229 −$33 -14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 20 $382 −$4 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 18 $96 −$25 -26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 15 $28 −$7 -25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 15 $75 −$12 -17%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -56%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $33 −$32 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $610 +$625 +102%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $605 +$10 +2%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5 May 20 $105 +$119 +114%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 18 $180 +$161 +90%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 17 $100 $0 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 17 $301 +$27 +9%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 May 16 $101 +$91 +90%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $202 +$106 +52%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5 May 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) May 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 13 $200 +$4 +2%
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 13 $255 +$245 +96%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $150 +$4 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 12 $50 +$18 +35%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 12 $80 +$10 +12%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 12 $120 +$30 +25%
76ers vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5 Apr 06 $110 −$110 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5 Apr 06 $75 −$75 -100%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Sloane Stephens vs Tatjana Maria Apr 06 $5 −$5 -97%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 06 $56 +$24 +42%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 06 $280 −$276 -99%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 06 $280 −$276 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 04 $50 +$7 +14%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 03 $198 −$198 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 39¢ $59 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 16¢ $52 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 14¢ $10 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 14¢ $10 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 37¢ $107 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $102 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 51¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 51¢ $48 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 51¢ $48 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 51¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 51¢ $48 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 51¢ $48 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 51¢ $48 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $153 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 46¢ $224 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 46¢ $32 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 35¢ $204 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 44¢ $377 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 35¢ $306 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes $201 3h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 14¢ $137 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $375 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $116 36h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $56 36h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.37 · official $131.37 (match) · 165 history records