Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:46:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa468…d126 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 397d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$1
other 24% $0
crypto 13% $0
politics 12% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.0% -10.4% 20% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 10 +2.9% -6.9% 40% 10% -10.1%
≤90d 10 +2.9% -6.9% 40% 10% -10.1%
all 32 -1.8% -11.2% 41% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 3% -9.7%
10% -19.7% 3% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 3% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

397d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage397d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $5 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $49 −$2 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $10 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $108 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $48 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $2 +$1 +38%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Israel strike on Iran on June 29? Dec 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -30%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13? Jun 12 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will James Monroe Inglehart win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a M Jun 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 07 $26 $0 +1%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 26 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 25 $25 $0 -1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Friedrich Merz in 2025? May 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will ‘KONOSUBA -God’s Blessing on This Wonderful World! 3’ win Crunchy May 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will 'DAN DA DAN' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? May 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will OG Anunoby Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in May? May 18 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $51 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 17h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $32 22h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $3 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $30 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 30¢ $0 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 30¢ $20 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 30¢ $13 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 30¢ $8 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 30¢ $4 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 30¢ $2 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $49 43h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $25 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $27 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $54 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $38 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $12 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $54 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $12 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $37 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $42 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.88 · official $50.88 (match) · 103 history records