Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa469…42a7 sports 123 markets active 2d ago coverage 720d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$580 (-4%) realized −$580 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%47W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$456
14 days+$456
30 days+$456
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$495
other 11% −$44
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
world 2% −$137
crypto 0% −$1
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +7.0% -3.2% 44% 41% -1.3%
≤30d 61 +7.0% -3.2% 44% 41% -1.3%
≤90d 80 +5.8% -4.3% 45% 41% -2.4%
all 123 -4.4% -13.5% 38% 33% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 33% -13.2%
10% -21.7% 31% -21.5%
15% -29.3% 26% -29.1%
20% -36.2% 21% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$53 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

720d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$580
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses47 / 76
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage720d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $233 −$137 -58%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $231 +$73 +32%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$24 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 +$2 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $144 +$61 +43%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $328 −$3 -1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $191 −$189 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $212 −$23 -11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $53 +$6 +12%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $92 +$7 +8%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $36 +$14 +37%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $145 +$20 +14%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 +$40 +416%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $21 −$6 -27%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $33 −$10 -29%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $89 +$211 +238%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $144 +$167 +116%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $213 +$107 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $158 +$30 +19%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $52 +$248 +474%
Raja Club Athletic vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $93 +$97 +104%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $34 −$9 -27%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $148 +$115 +78%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $138 +$86 +62%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $65 −$64 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $41 −$21 -51%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $74 −$39 -53%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $65 +$35 +55%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $186 −$32 -17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $33 −$11 -32%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $28 −$22 -77%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 −$11 -23%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $97 +$103 +105%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $61 +$50 +83%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 −$21 -20%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 −$2 -4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 −$6 -11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $113 −$111 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $88 −$17 -20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$49 +97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $249 −$41 -17%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $39 +$23 +59%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$26 +154%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $68 +$21 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $97 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $25 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 88¢ $53 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $25 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $26 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 51¢ $102 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 85¢ $205 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $177 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $27 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $27 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $18 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $125 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $325 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $107 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $191 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $221 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 47¢ $189 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $212 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 67¢ $33 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 52¢ $26 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 52¢ $53 3d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 93¢ $13 3d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 90¢ $87 3d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 84¢ $92 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner SELL Game Master $1 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 33¢ $41 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 57¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 410 history records