Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:20:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa469…0782 sports 416 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18,124 (-3%) realized −$9,385 · open −$8,739
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%244W / 281L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,261per market
Trades / day74.9pace
Fees−$4,559est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$872now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$540
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 -57.3% -61.4% 18% 15% -32.2%
≤30d 344 -26.1% -33.2% 43% 36% -16.7%
≤90d 525 -17.2% -25.1% 46% 42% -14.8%
all 525 -17.2% -25.1% 46% 42% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 42% -14.8%
10% -32.3% 35% -23.0%
15% ← realistic here -38.8% 28% -30.4%
20% -44.8% 19% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$788) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$333 vs −$401 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$872
Realized−$9,385
Unrealized−$8,739
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses244 / 281
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$4,559
Open positions5
Markets (closed)525 / 416
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$1,261
Trades / day74.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 525 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ 100¢ $678 $718 +$39 (+6%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 94¢ 86¢ $163 $148 −$15 (-9%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ 0¢ $4,700 $2 −$4,697 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 65¢ 0¢ $3,250 $2 −$3,247 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 43¢ 0¢ $820 $1 −$819 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 257 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $524 −$524 -100%
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Dignitas (+1.5) Jun 17 $296 −$296 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $496 −$496 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $293 −$293 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $294 −$294 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $439 −$439 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Disguised - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $263 −$263 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $297 −$297 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $295 −$295 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $223 −$223 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $690 −$690 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Q Jun 17 $149 −$149 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Dignitas - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $830 −$830 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $750 −$750 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $750 −$750 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $449 −$449 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $347 −$347 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $373 −$373 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Chin Jun 17 $490 −$490 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $217 −$217 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $539 −$539 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $172 −$172 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Solary - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $350 −$350 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: Dignitas vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $497 −$497 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $496 −$496 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $889 −$889 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $287 −$42 -15%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifie Jun 17 $396 −$396 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playo Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $460 −$460 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $343 −$343 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $293 −$293 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $296 −$296 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $377 −$379 -101%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $490 −$490 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $294 −$294 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $11 −$388 -3478%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game Jun 17 $345 −$345 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $254 −$254 -100%
LoL: Disguised vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $220 −$220 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOUD (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Jun 17 $295 −$295 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $1,611 38m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $124 38m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $28 39m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $26 39m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $7 40m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $7 40m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $89 40m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $93 41m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $93 41m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $66 41m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $2 41m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $2 42m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $2 42m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $3 42m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $41 43m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $186 44m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $186 45m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $32 47m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $93 47m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $93 47m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $68 48m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $28 48m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $371 49m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $61 57m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $16 58m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $25 58m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $61 58m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 5¢ $389 58m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 8¢ $628 59m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 43¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $871.81 · official $871.81 (match) · 3500 history records