Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:07:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa46b…ba65 crypto 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$82 (+3%) realized +$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate62%108W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day43.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$56
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$23
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +3.2% -6.7% 68% 55% -5.5%
≤30d 173 -9.2% -17.8% 62% 49% -10.3%
≤90d 173 -9.2% -17.8% 62% 49% -10.3%
all 173 -9.2% -17.8% 62% 49% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 49% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 31% -18.9%
15% -32.9% 21% -26.7%
20% -39.5% 12% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses108 / 65
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)173 / 173
History coverage9d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day43.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 173 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$22 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $62 −$8 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $62 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $57 +$12 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $92 +$15 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $41 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $41 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $76 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $46 −$15 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $41 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$9 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $16 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 412 history records