Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:06:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa46e…fec5 weather 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$65 (-6%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days−$52
14 days−$63
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 42% −$116
crypto 39% −$17
other 18% +$55
world 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -15.6% -23.6% 48% 26% -14.2%
≤30d 32 -10.2% -18.7% 50% 34% -15.3%
≤90d 32 -10.2% -18.7% 50% 34% -15.3%
all 32 -10.2% -18.7% 50% 34% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 34% -15.3%
10% -26.5% 34% -23.4%
15% -33.6% 28% -30.8%
20% -40.1% 28% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage28d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $98 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 23 $98 +$2 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $90 +$3 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $90 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$3 +296%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $64 +$33 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$24 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 21 $69 −$5 -7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $52 +$18 +35%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 20 $51 +$32 +62%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 19 $34 +$26 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 19? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $143 −$141 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $32 −$31 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $12 +$20 +161%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 06 $8 +$4 +54%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 05 $3 +$2 +61%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju May 31 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju May 31 $10 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ma May 31 $11 +$14 +132%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma May 30 $11 −$11 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 30 $20 +$5 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $98 57m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $90 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $90 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 84¢ $98 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $64 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $36 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 40¢ $64 37h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 41¢ $69 47h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 51¢ $69 47h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 35¢ $52 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 69¢ $83 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 41¢ $51 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 96¢ $60 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 53¢ $34 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records