Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:20:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa46e…8bac crypto 608 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$876 (-4%) realized −$1,383 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%324W / 280L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$58
14 days+$88
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$1,026
sports 23% −$335
other 2% +$8
politics 0% −$22
world 0% −$7
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +37.0% +23.9% 80% 80% +32.6%
≤30d 14 +7.9% -2.4% 64% 64% +18.6%
≤90d 14 +7.9% -2.4% 64% 64% +18.6%
all 604 -3.1% -12.3% 54% 43% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 43% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 31% -23.5%
15% -28.4% 22% -30.9%
20% -35.4% 16% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$17 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$1,383
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses324 / 280
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)604 / 608
History coverage137d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 604 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Russia enter Kurylivka by February 28? No 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Pelicans vs. Hornets Pelicans 68¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - FiReCONTER Group A Bounty Hunters Esports 89¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down on February 12? Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Palestine" or "Palestinian" during meeting with Netanyahu? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Accords" during meeting with Netanyahu? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump say "Scam" on Truth Social this week? No 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Karmine Corp Blue 19¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs 100 Thieves 25¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$19 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$12 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$26 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 06 $31 −$25 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 06 $36 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 06 $57 +$40 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 01 $13 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 14 $45 −$24 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 14 $37 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11PM ET Mar 13 $25 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 13 $22 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 11 $14 +$8 +55%
Will "Holy Shit" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of Mar 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" or "Red Sea" during Ohio visit? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times during Ohio visit? Mar 11 $1 $0 -47%
Will Starmer say "Military" during the next Prime Minister's Questions Mar 11 $5 $0 -7%
Will Trump say "Biden" 7+ times during Ohio visit? Mar 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Starmer say "Khamenei" during the next Prime Minister's Questions Mar 11 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 10 $23 −$22 -98%
Grizzlies vs. Nets Mar 10 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Mar 10 $21 −$21 -99%
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Mexico Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Mar 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Mar 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Mar 09 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Mar 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Mar 08 $73 −$72 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Mar 08 $76 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 08 $40 +$25 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8PM ET Mar 08 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Mar 08 $6 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Mar 07 $682 −$324 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Mar 07 $456 +$115 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Mar 07 $410 −$92 -22%
Will Trump say "Third term" in March? Mar 07 $1 $0 -34%
Will Trump say "Aliens are Real" in March? Mar 07 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Mar 07 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Mar 06 $72 +$24 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 03 $151 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Mar 03 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 03 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 03 $27 −$6 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $50 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $53 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $8 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $32 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $51 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $45 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.60 · official $59.60 (match) · 2881 history records