Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa46f…87c3 other 695 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 170d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$536 (-2%) realized −$540 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate65%450W / 243L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$172
14 days−$624
30 days−$372
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$196
sports 20% −$7
world 10% −$167
politics 5% −$107
finance 3% −$434
culture 2% −$214
crypto 2% +$1
tech 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -11.9% -20.3% 51% 34% -16.6%
≤30d 169 -7.4% -16.3% 61% 36% -13.0%
≤90d 462 -0.4% -9.9% 64% 34% -12.0%
all 693 +0.6% -9.0% 65% 29% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 29% -11.4%
10% -17.7% 17% -19.9%
15% -25.6% 11% -27.6%
20% -32.9% 6% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$17 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized−$540
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses450 / 243
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions2
Markets (closed)693 / 695
History coverage171d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 693 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? No 91¢ 89¢ $91 $89 −$2 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? No 30¢ 36¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $55 +$125 +226%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? Jun 17 $67 +$14 +21%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $72 −$17 -23%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $80 −$79 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 17 $123 −$31 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in June 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 -3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $149 +$11 +8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $22 +$3 +14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $58 +$21 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $17 +$3 +15%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 14 $4 −$2 -42%
Felix Nmecha: 5+ shots Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $18 +$7 +40%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $125 +$7 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 13 $191 +$17 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $48 +$1 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n Jun 13 $45 +$6 +14%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? Jun 12 $44 −$21 -48%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? Jun 12 $89 +$8 +9%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $26 +$2 +8%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $119 −$2 -2%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $129 +$14 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $70 +$30 +43%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? Jun 11 $137 −$134 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 11 $422 −$4 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11? Jun 11 $96 −$94 -98%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 in June? Jun 11 $711 +$65 +9%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $9 +$6 +67%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? Jun 10 $70 +$10 +14%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 10 $48 +$11 +24%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10? Jun 10 $211 −$169 -80%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 10? Jun 09 $82 $0 +0%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $96 +$1 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 9? Jun 09 $8 −$7 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? Jun 09 $76 +$13 +17%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $70 −$1 -1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 09 $5 −$2 -48%
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $29 +$1 +4%
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $91 30m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 30¢ $31 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $55 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $55 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $80 8h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? SELL Yes 80¢ $79 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $24 15h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? BUY Yes 65¢ $32 16h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? BUY Yes 65¢ $36 16h
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 55¢ $92 16h
Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes $1 16h
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $123 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No $41 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No $21 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No $20 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $32 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 3d
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals SELL No 49¢ $2 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 87¢ $1 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 87¢ $17 3d
Felix Nmecha: 5+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $14 3d
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals BUY No 83¢ $4 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $7 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $25 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Under 92¢ $5 3d
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 87¢ $22 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $58 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $120 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.50 · official $119.00 · 3462 history records