Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:23:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa472…b166 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$13
other 21% +$3
politics 11% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.4% -9.9% 17% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 17 +7.1% -3.1% 35% 12% -7.7%
≤90d 17 +7.1% -3.1% 35% 12% -7.7%
all 35 -4.9% -13.9% 34% 9% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 9% -8.2%
10% -22.2% 9% -17.0%
15% -29.7% 6% -25.0%
20% -36.6% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage449d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $70 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $62 +$2 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $47 −$2 -4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $66 −$2 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $40 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $58 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $66 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $62 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $86 +$6 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $70 +$5 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $7 +$6 +81%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $9 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will Iceland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11? Apr 08 $7 +$3 +38%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $2 $0 -4%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $21 $0 +0%
US military action against Iran before April? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 01 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Mar 28 $2 −$1 -32%
Human case of new COVID disease before April? Mar 28 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 34m
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $70 6h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $70 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 14h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $31 34h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $27 34h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $5 34h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $6 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $56 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $45 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $47 44h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $40 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $2 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $38 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $59 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $5 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $29 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $7 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $29 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $12 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $27 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $38 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $17 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $41 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.52 · official $7.52 (match) · 111 history records