Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:48:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa474…61ba sports 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,263 (+10%) realized +$4,266 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%90W / 74L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$580now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$311
7 days+$13
14 days+$1,164
30 days+$1,164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$2,321
other 28% +$1,843
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +11.7% +1.1% 86% 86% -9.0%
≤30d 17 +8.1% -2.2% 76% 71% +6.3%
≤90d 85 -0.0% -9.5% 72% 60% +3.5%
all 164 -11.0% -19.5% 55% 47% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 47% -0.5%
10% -27.2% 29% -10.0%
15% -34.2% 15% -18.7%
20% -40.7% 9% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$60 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$580
Realized+$4,266
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses90 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions2
Markets (closed)164 / 166
History coverage139d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 87¢ 86¢ $530 $527 −$3 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $419 +$121 +29%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $402 +$69 +17%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $332 +$66 +20%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $281 +$56 +20%
Games Total: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $252 +$100 +40%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $178 +$102 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $505 −$500 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 13 $504 +$177 +35%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $244 +$277 +114%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $126 −$123 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $939 +$470 +50%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Sara Milanese Jun 12 $501 +$46 +9%
1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 11 $1,010 +$440 +44%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 11 $346 +$164 +47%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $212 +$118 +56%
ITF Hurghada: Ulyana Hrabavets vs Aya El Sayed May 24 $119 −$118 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 21 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $372 +$27 +7%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $302 −$300 -99%
Will SD Huesca win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $255 +$66 +26%
Will Djurgardens IF win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $301 +$52 +17%
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $453 +$103 +23%
Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $352 +$91 +26%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $311 +$33 +11%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $412 +$100 +24%
Will Punjab FC win on 2026-04-24? May 11 $342 +$77 +23%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $251 +$46 +18%
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $246 +$49 +20%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $226 +$19 +8%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $181 +$47 +26%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $111 +$25 +23%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs playersclub (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Apr 27 $89 −$16 -18%
Tjen vs. Sakkari: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Apr 21 $240 −$8 -3%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $400 +$58 +14%
Will AVS Futebol win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $330 +$70 +21%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $250 +$74 +30%
Canucks vs. Ducks Apr 16 $143 −$143 -100%
Sarasota: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Hynek Barton Apr 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic: 1H O/U 109.5 Apr 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Rinderknech (+1.5) Apr 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5 Apr 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets: O/U 219.5 Apr 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Hawks vs. Heat Apr 16 $147 −$147 -100%
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan: Playoffs Apr 15 $109 +$54 +50%
Wizards vs. Cavaliers Apr 14 $88 +$10 +11%
Bulls vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 121.5 Apr 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Ryukyu Golden Kings vs. Ibaraki Robots Apr 12 $52 +$9 +17%
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 11 $600 +$11 +2%
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $80 +$7 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $532 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $540 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 77¢ $419 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $53 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $402 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $332 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $337 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 83¢ $281 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $178 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $505 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $304 7d
Games Total: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 71¢ $252 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $521 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $126 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $244 8d
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 73¢ $504 8d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $434 8d
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Sara Milanese BUY Polina Iatcenko 91¢ $501 8d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $505 8d
1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 69¢ $500 9d
1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 69¢ $510 9d
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL 9z 100¢ $510 9d
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 67¢ $346 10d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 64¢ $212 15d
ITF Hurghada: Ulyana Hrabavets vs Aya El Sayed BUY Ulyana Hrabavets 80¢ $119 27d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $16 30d
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-19? SELL No 100¢ $398 32d
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 93¢ $372 32d
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 81¢ $302 32d
Will SD Huesca win on 2026-05-18? BUY No 79¢ $255 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $579.61 · official $579.95 (match) · 436 history records