Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A4 0xa474…32cb sports 538 markets active 0h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,446 (-2%) realized −$1,586 · open −$860
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%231W / 305L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$1,031est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,417
7 days−$1,328
14 days+$1,602
30 days+$2,721
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3,494
other 0% −$321
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -23.9% -31.2% 31% 31% -14.3%
≤30d 131 -5.8% -14.7% 40% 40% -2.4%
≤90d 278 -0.8% -10.2% 42% 42% -5.7%
all 536 +0.3% -9.3% 43% 43% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 43% -11.7%
10% -18.0% 42% -20.1%
15% -25.9% 39% -27.8%
20% -33.2% 36% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$264 vs −$210 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$1,586
Unrealized−$860
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses231 / 305
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$1,031
Open positions2
Markets (closed)536 / 538
History coverage184d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 536 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Amaru Gaming 24¢ 7¢ $249 $73 −$176 (-71%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 51¢ 0¢ $685 $1 −$684 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $177 +$257 +145%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $396 −$136 -34%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $205 +$368 +180%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $522 −$517 -99%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 18 $373 +$150 +40%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $323 +$50 +15%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $259 −$59 -23%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $198 −$198 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $163 −$163 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $222 −$222 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $379 +$133 +35%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $196 −$196 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $179 −$179 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $295 −$295 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $204 −$204 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 18 $297 −$297 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $137 −$137 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $303 −$303 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $454 −$454 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $474 −$474 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $429 −$429 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 18 $113 −$113 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 18 $547 −$248 -45%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $201 −$201 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $700 −$700 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $303 −$303 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $501 −$501 -100%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $208 −$208 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $200 +$298 +149%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $200 +$227 +114%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $375 +$687 +183%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $200 +$179 +90%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $400 +$1,638 +409%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $200 +$230 +115%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $399 +$1,637 +410%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $993 +$805 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 22¢ $10 21m
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 24¢ $8 23m
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 24¢ $4 23m
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 24¢ $17 23m
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 24¢ $112 23m
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 24¢ $63 24m
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 24¢ $0 24m
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 23¢ $35 24m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 49¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 51¢ $693 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner SELL Zero Tenacity 100¢ $434 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 39¢ $260 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 57¢ $396 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 40¢ $177 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $573 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 35¢ $205 3h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 66¢ $522 18h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea SELL 9z Team 100¢ $522 18h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY 9z Team 71¢ $373 19h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 93¢ $373 19h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 80¢ $323 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $60 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 73¢ $383 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 37¢ $199 22h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 22¢ $6 24h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 26¢ $0 24h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 26¢ $202 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $14 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $189 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $7 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.97 · official $63.50 · 1604 history records