Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:54:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A4 0xa476…d15a other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (444 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$798 (+59%) realized +$798 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day444.4pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$396
sports 31% +$401
world 15% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +38.5% +25.3% 75% 75% +45.5%
≤30d 8 +38.5% +25.3% 75% 75% +45.5%
≤90d 8 +38.5% +25.3% 75% 75% +45.5%
all 8 +38.5% +25.3% 75% 75% +45.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover444.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.3% 75% +45.5%
10% ← realistic here +13.3% 75% +31.5%
15% +2.4% 62% +18.8%
20% -7.7% 38% +7.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
37.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$3 · ×47.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×141.92 per $1 lost it wins $141.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$798
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day444.4
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? Jun 16 $129 −$6 -4%
Will Walker Jenkins win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? Jun 16 $76 +$37 +48%
Will Carson Williams win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? Jun 16 $0 $0 -53%
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27? Jun 16 $233 +$200 +86%
Will Tereza Valentova win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Jun 16 $115 +$53 +46%
Will Donna Vekic win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Jun 16 $109 +$69 +64%
Will Jiří Procházka be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December Jun 15 $422 +$401 +95%
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? Jun 15 $279 +$73 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes $23 1h
Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes $14 1h
Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes $43 1h
Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes $15 1h
Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes $7 1h
Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes $14 1h
Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes $5 1h
Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes $5 1h
Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes $12 1h
Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes $25 1h
Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes $28 1h
Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes $13 1h
Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes $20 1h
Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes $13 1h
Will Walker Jenkins win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes $19 1h
Will Walker Jenkins win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Walker Jenkins win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes $7 1h
Will Walker Jenkins win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes $27 1h
Will Walker Jenkins win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes $6 1h
Will Walker Jenkins win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Walker Jenkins win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes $8 1h
Will Walker Jenkins win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes $31 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 519 history records