Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:49:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa476…a515
crypto · 57 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$15 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$27
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses26 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage10d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 1 History 56 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$20
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 52¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$20 +99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$22 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$14 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$6 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 6 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63 and 64 million views on day 6 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views on day 6? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 71% −$4
sports 21% +$23
other 9% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $42 18h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $8 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +29.8% +17.4% 67% 67% +5.8%
≤30d 56 -9.1% -17.7% 46% 45% -5.9%
≤90d 56 -9.1% -17.7% 46% 45% -5.9%
all 56 -9.1% -17.7% 46% 45% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 45% -5.9%
10% -25.6% 45% -14.9%
15% -32.8% 45% -23.1%
20% -39.4% 41% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.75 · official $26.75 (match) · 110 history records