Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:20:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A4 0xa478…4708 politics 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$1
other 32% $0
crypto 11% $0
economics 10% $0
culture 5% $0
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage110d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 26 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $105 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $105 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $105 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 20 $105 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 15 $106 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $106 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $107 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $107 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $107 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $107 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 21 $107 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 18 $107 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $107 $0 +0%
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 12 $108 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $108 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $105 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $105 11h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $105 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $105 10d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $105 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $105 17d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $105 29d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $105 29d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $105 36d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $105 37d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $105 38d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $106 38d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $106 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $106 42d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $106 44d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $106 44d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $106 48d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $106 49d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $107 70d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $107 71d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $107 73d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $107 74d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $107 77d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $107 78d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $107 84d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $107 85d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $107 89d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $107 90d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $107 96d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $107 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records