Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:53:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa479…6699 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% $0
other 33% +$6
sports 5% $0
politics 2% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.8% -13.0% 25% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 17 -2.7% -11.9% 47% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 17 -2.7% -11.9% 47% 6% -9.7%
all 36 +7.8% -2.5% 53% 8% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 8% -8.5%
10% -11.8% 6% -17.3%
15% -20.4% 6% -25.3%
20% -28.2% 6% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.5 per $1 lost it wins $2.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage466d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $32 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $34 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $33 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $37 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $40 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $63 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $2 −$1 -47%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $16 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $1 $0 +14%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 06 $20 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 03 $16 $0 -0%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Apr 01 $1 +$3 +294%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April? Mar 31 $17 $0 +1%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Mar 29 $14 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced before April? Mar 27 $5 −$1 -25%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Mar 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 12? Mar 14 $18 $0 +1%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in February? Mar 13 $12 +$6 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $4 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $29 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $32 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $32 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $32 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $5 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $21 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $8 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $33 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $6 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $37 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.81 · official $32.81 (match) · 127 history records