Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:32:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa481…f126 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 424d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$42
14 days+$46
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$3
sports 15% +$2
other 10% −$23
crypto 7% −$15
weather 4% +$37
culture 2% $0
world 1% −$2
economics 1% $0
finance 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +33.8% +21.1% 67% 67% +28.9%
≤30d 7 +43.7% +30.0% 71% 71% +31.1%
≤90d 14 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 50% -14.8%
all 38 +2.7% -7.0% 26% 24% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 24% -10.1%
10% -15.9% 24% -18.7%
15% -24.1% 18% -26.5%
20% -31.5% 13% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$4 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

424d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage424d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $96 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $8 −$7 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 15? Jun 16 $22 +$16 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $12 +$28 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 14 $14 +$5 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $28 +$14 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $4 +$4 +103%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 26? Apr 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Apr 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 24 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 9? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 7? Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Apr 07 $25 +$10 +41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 10? Mar 13 $6 +$6 +100%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $229 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 04 $230 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $243 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 04 $228 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 04 $243 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 03 $228 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70-80 million views on week 1? Sep 01 $18 −$1 -6%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? Aug 26 $34 −$1 -2%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Aug 24 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Aug 23 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 19 $30 $0 -1%
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 15 $17 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin above $115,000 on August 8? Aug 02 $7 $0 -7%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Jul 26 $14 −$2 -15%
Ethereum above $3,600 on July 25? Jul 23 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Vitality win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament? Jul 23 $4 $0 +6%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 21 $13 $0 -2%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 02 $6 $0 -1%
Solana above $150 on May 2? May 02 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? Apr 29 $3 $0 -3%
Will the next Pope be from Europe? Apr 28 $4 $0 -4%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Apr 22 $4 $0 -3%
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 21 $3 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $96 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 6¢ $1 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 44¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $14 44h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 56¢ $22 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $28 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 73¢ $14 7d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 26? BUY No 73¢ $16 53d
Golden Knights vs. Utah BUY Golden Knights 52¢ $28 54d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Hawks 33¢ $10 60d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 67d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 9? BUY No 60¢ $20 70d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 7? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 72d
Pelicans vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 71¢ $25 97d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 10? BUY No 50¢ $6 100d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $229 165d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $229 165d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $229 165d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $230 165d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $242 165d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $243 165d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $227 165d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $228 165d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $243 165d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $243 165d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $228 165d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $228 165d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70-80 million views on week 1? SELL No 50¢ $17 289d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.39 · official $96.39 (match) · 81 history records