Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:38:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A4 0xa482…cc3d sports 117 markets active 24h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-9%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%59W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$24
14 days−$86
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$75
crypto 1% −$11
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +1.1% -8.6% 50% 50% -14.5%
≤30d 116 -7.9% -16.7% 51% 50% -18.6%
≤90d 116 -7.9% -16.7% 51% 50% -18.6%
all 116 -7.9% -16.7% 51% 50% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 50% -18.6%
10% -24.7% 47% -26.4%
15% -31.9% 40% -33.5%
20% -38.6% 24% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses59 / 57
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage12d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $22 −$22 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $11 +$10 +86%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$9 +87%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$12 +388%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +65%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$7 +64%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$7 +65%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$7 +73%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$5 +52%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $11 +$6 +50%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$10 +509%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $32 +$10 +32%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $23 +$9 +38%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $16 +$7 +43%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $13 +$4 +29%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $10 +$3 +26%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$3 +41%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $9 +$1 +8%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$2 +36%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 +$3 +276%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $6 +$3 +41%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 +$1 +18%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 +$1 +39%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $6 +$1 +21%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $22 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $11 32h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $10 32h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 32h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 47¢ $10 44h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $10 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $7 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 3d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 100¢ $15 3d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 35¢ $6 3d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 20¢ $3 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $10 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $10 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $17 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $10 4d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $17 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 61¢ $10 4d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 60¢ $10 4d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $19 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 36¢ $6 4d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 53¢ $10 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 53¢ $10 4d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 35¢ $6 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $20 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 61¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.78 · official $1.78 (match) · 191 history records