Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:41:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa484…fdc5 politics 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$1
politics 30% $0
other 26% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 3% −$2
culture 3% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 12 -0.0% -9.5% 42% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 12 -0.0% -9.5% 42% 0% -10.0%
all 41 +0.0% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage276d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 58¢ 54¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $9 $0 +5%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $31 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $57 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $30 +$1 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $35 −$2 -5%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 10 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 08 $17 $0 -1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 08 $31 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 01 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 29 $30 $0 +1%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Sep 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $29 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $26 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $33 25h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $33 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 32h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $33 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $34 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $23 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $14 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $22 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $8 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $5 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $6 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $13 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $6 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $30 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $10 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $20 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $28 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $28 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $33 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $33 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $30 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $31 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $6 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.62 · official $26.19 (match) · 144 history records