Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:08:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa484…524c sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,199 (-18%) realized −$1,199 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$111
14 days−$1,228
30 days−$1,218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$1,256
other 1% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -7.9% -16.7% 41% 41% -0.8%
≤30d 51 -25.1% -32.2% 37% 33% -27.9%
≤90d 51 -25.1% -32.2% 37% 33% -27.9%
all 51 -25.1% -32.2% 37% 33% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.2% 33% -27.9%
10% -38.7% 27% -34.8%
15% -44.6% 22% -41.1%
20% -50.1% 18% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$76 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,199
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 32
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage27d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $11 +$18 +162%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $24 +$23 +94%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $16 −$16 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $8 +$17 +216%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $8 $0 -3%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $19 +$31 +158%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $34 +$66 +194%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $136 +$54 +40%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $46 −$36 -77%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $17 −$17 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $22 −$22 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $42 −$8 -19%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $34 +$4 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $34 +$11 +33%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $49 +$11 +23%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 +$37 +36%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $33 −$18 -54%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $50 −$15 -31%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $52 −$51 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $200 +$253 +127%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $100 −$98 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $102 −$100 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$21 +104%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 +$67 +134%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $53 −$51 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $45 −$42 -92%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $9 −$1 -10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1,026 −$1,010 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,139 +$16 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $800 −$800 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$1 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $800 +$161 +20%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $257 +$349 +136%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $321 +$80 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) SELL Senegal 96¢ $29 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 72¢ $46 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $13 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $16 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 6h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 36¢ $11 6h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $5 43h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $8 43h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 3d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals SELL Yes 34¢ $2 3d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals SELL Yes 40¢ $5 3d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $8 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $0 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $34 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $190 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $10 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $44 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $21 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $71 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $17 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $46 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $22 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $10 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records