Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A4 0xa489…5be4 crypto 1488 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$365 (-1%) realized −$465 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate88%1306W / 181L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days−$176
14 days−$108
30 days−$681
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$444
other 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 434 -1.1% -10.5% 94% 16% -13.2%
≤30d 1306 -1.2% -10.6% 90% 56% -14.1%
≤90d 1307 -1.1% -10.6% 90% 56% -14.1%
all 1487 -0.6% -10.0% 88% 55% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 55% -11.2%
10% -18.6% 2% -19.7%
15% -26.5% 0% -27.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$14 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$465
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1306 / 181
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1487 / 1488
History coverage136d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1487 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.26 · official $9.12 · 3396 history records