Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa48e…b476 other 482 markets active 0h ago coverage 362d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$878 (-0%) realized −$924 · open −$122
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate46%220W / 255L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,203per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$381
7 days+$332
14 days+$313
30 days+$328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$1,712
crypto 23% −$142
economics 21% +$74
sports 4% −$2,413
politics 4% −$315
world 2% −$11
tech 1% +$50
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +36.7% +23.7% 54% 31% -8.1%
≤30d 72 +1.2% -8.4% 54% 24% -9.1%
≤90d 229 -13.2% -21.5% 44% 20% -10.4%
all 475 -6.2% -15.1% 46% 17% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 17% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 15% -18.3%
15% -30.7% 14% -26.1%
20% -37.5% 12% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$2,300) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$59 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

362d coverage
Net worth$400
Realized−$924
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses220 / 255
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions7
Markets (closed)475 / 482
History coverage362d
Avg bet$2,203
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 475 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $105 $106 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Under 8¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Panna Udvardy 57¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Tommy Paul 37¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame Adolfo Vallejo 56¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? No 3¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul Alex de Minaur 57¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev Jesper de Jong 8¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Casper Ruud 27¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik Alexander Bublik 67¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Iva Jovic Iva Jovic 24¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Nikola Bartunkova 35¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Oleksandra Oliynykova 13¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 59 and 60 million views on day 5? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Molcan Alex Molcan 45¢ 0¢ $112 $0 −$112 (-100%)
Saski Baskonia vs. Joventut Saski Baskonia 38¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Benjamin Bonzi 22¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week Jun 14 $4 −$3 -66%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $109 +$31 +29%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $96 −$34 -35%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $110 −$23 -21%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $55 +$396 +719%
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 13 $12 −$2 -19%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 13 $19,132 +$8 +0%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Robert Lewandowski score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $759 +$5 +1%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Saski Baskonia vs. Joventut Jun 07 $53 −$53 -100%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 07 $112 −$110 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on week 1? Jun 07 $1,967 +$2 +0%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Molcan Jun 06 $112 −$112 -100%
Joventut vs. Saski Baskonia Jun 06 $104 +$96 +92%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $95 +$155 +163%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 06 $100 −$31 -31%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 05 $4,001 +$7 +0%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 04 $87 −$85 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 04 $81 +$4 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $102 +$121 +119%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $112 +$177 +158%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $4,140 −$14 -0%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 02 $112 −$110 -99%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week Jun 02 $675 +$3 +0%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $43 −$42 -98%
43 million or more views Jun 01 $995 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 01 $5,100 +$5 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $15 −$15 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 31 $59 +$111 +188%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 30 $56 +$116 +206%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $61 −$60 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 29 $31 +$51 +165%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $98 −$24 -24%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $10 $0 -3%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $55 −$45 -82%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $71 −$70 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Viktorija Golubic May 28 $51 −$50 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Amanda Anisimova May 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $25 +$29 +114%
Will MrBeast's video get between 69 and 70 million views on week 1? May 23 $835 +$3 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 23 $5,000 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 23 $3,501 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week SELL Yes 0¢ $1 17m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 24m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 22¢ $21 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $21 2h
Joventut vs. Valencia BUY Joventut 44¢ $7 4h
Joventut vs. Valencia BUY Joventut 44¢ $22 5h
Joventut vs. Valencia BUY Joventut 44¢ $22 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 5h
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut BUY Raphael Collignon 65¢ $101 11h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY No 98¢ $9 12h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $62 12h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $87 12h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY No 98¢ $89 12h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 91¢ $451 13h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 1¢ $4 22h
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $105 24h
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 25h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 25h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 11¢ $8 26h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 11¢ $14 26h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 11¢ $4 26h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 11¢ $29 27h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 5¢ $26 28h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 2¢ $6 28h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 2¢ $2 28h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 2¢ $2 28h
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 30h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 1¢ $10 30h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $461 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $399.85 · official $399.85 (match) · 3215 history records