Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:39:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa48f…b5ff world 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%22W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$3
politics 18% −$1
sports 16% −$11
other 12% −$2
economics 8% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.8% -10.3% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 24 -0.6% -10.0% 21% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 72 -4.1% -13.2% 31% 0% -9.7%
all 74 -6.3% -15.2% 30% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 0% -10.0%
10% -23.3% 0% -18.6%
15% -30.7% 0% -26.5%
20% -37.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses22 / 52
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage534d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 22 $132 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $28 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $15 $0 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 -9%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $219 +$2 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $45 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $153 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $46 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $21 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $89 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 21 $8 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $54 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $47 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $46 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $86 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $45 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $45 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $3 $0 +5%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $102 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $96 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $35 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $92 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $49 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $82 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $49 −$3 -6%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $45 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $45 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $7 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 73¢ $28 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $21 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 309 history records