Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:05:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa493…7349 other 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%22W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$21
14 days−$29
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$28
politics 26% −$14
sports 18% −$8
crypto 9% −$2
world 5% −$1
culture 4% −$4
economics 4% $0
finance 4% −$2
tech 3% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.8% -10.2% 7% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 66 -0.7% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 117 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -10.0%
all 143 -0.5% -10.0% 15% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses22 / 121
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage102d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 97¢ 97¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 20 $166 −$2 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $61 $0 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $118 −$1 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $92 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $51 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $103 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $119 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $206 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $115 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $209 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $48 $0 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $120 −$7 -6%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 14 $107 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $110 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $52 $0 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $84 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $59 $0 +1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $438 −$2 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 11 $113 −$2 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $59 −$2 -3%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $321 −$1 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $52 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $55 −$6 -10%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $154 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 05 $93 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $45 $0 -1%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $44 $0 +0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $5 $0 -3%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $63 +$1 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $98 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 03 $50 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $301 −$1 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $60 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $725 −$2 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $42 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $63 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $60 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $61 6h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $61 7h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $61 11h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $62 12h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $63 20h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 20h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 25h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $47 26h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $47 31h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $50 31h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 36h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $52 36h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 97¢ $52 40h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 41h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 45h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $41 45h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $41 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 90¢ $67 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 90¢ $68 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 2d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $45 2d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $46 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $50 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $53 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $54 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.82 · official $62.40 (match) · 529 history records