Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa496…b80e
crypto · 1218 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$16,158 -241%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16,150 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$16,150
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses656 / 497
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1153 / 1218
History coverage15d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day193.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1153 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18,235
7 days−$17,399
14 days−$16,212
30 days−$16,150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET Up 53¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+89%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9AM ET Down 51¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+96%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 12AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $241 $0 −$241 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 2AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 10AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $263 $0 −$263 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 12AM ET Jun 13 $241 −$241 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 2AM ET Jun 13 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 10AM ET Jun 13 $263 −$263 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12AM ET Jun 13 $242 −$242 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $184 −$184 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11AM ET Jun 13 $343 −$343 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 6AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 1PM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $68 −$68 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 5AM ET Jun 13 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$2,359
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 741 -23.0% -30.3% 41% 41% -86.6%
≤30d 1153 +6.5% -3.7% 57% 57% -74.1%
≤90d 1153 +6.5% -3.7% 57% 57% -74.1%
all 1153 +6.5% -3.7% 57% 57% -74.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover193.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.7% 57% -74.1%
10% ← realistic here -12.9% 57% -76.6%
15% -21.3% 57% -78.9%
20% -29.0% 57% -80.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.92 · official $0.01 (match) · 3500 history records