Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa498…6228 crypto 204 markets active 3h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$167 (-14%) realized −$167 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%91W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day44.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$188
14 days−$194
30 days−$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 157 -19.8% -27.4% 43% 43% -27.7%
≤30d 204 -17.1% -25.0% 45% 45% -24.3%
≤90d 204 -17.1% -25.0% 45% 45% -24.3%
all 204 -17.1% -25.0% 45% 45% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.0% 45% -24.3%
10% ← realistic here -32.2% 45% -31.6%
15% -38.7% 45% -38.2%
20% -44.7% 45% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$167
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses91 / 113
Open positions0
Markets (closed)204 / 204
History coverage8d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day44.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 204 Trades
no open positions (112 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$6 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +89%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +84%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +81%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +77%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +84%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +84%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$10 +159%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $9 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $0 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $9 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $9 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $9 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 360 history records