Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:57:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa499…7502 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$27 (-8%) realized −$26 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$35
sports 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -18.5% -26.2% 55% 45% -20.8%
≤30d 11 -18.5% -26.2% 55% 45% -20.8%
≤90d 11 -18.5% -26.2% 55% 45% -20.8%
all 11 -18.5% -26.2% 55% 45% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 45% -20.8%
10% -33.3% 36% -28.4%
15% -39.7% 27% -35.3%
20% -45.6% 9% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$13 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $89 $88 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $99 +$10 +10%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $57 −$56 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$8 +153%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $89 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $99 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $57 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $12 5d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $29 5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.36 · official $107.36 (match) · 24 history records