Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:12:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa49a…c2f7 sports 760 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$221 (-0%) realized −$213 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate91%685W / 66L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$568now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$66
14 days−$86
30 days+$353
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$426
weather 26% +$59
other 19% +$137
world 0% +$1
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -29.5% -36.2% 36% 36% -34.5%
≤30d 21 +64.5% +48.8% 38% 33% +23.2%
≤90d 134 +12.0% +1.3% 66% 26% -8.9%
all 751 +2.4% -7.4% 91% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 6% -9.7%
10% -16.3% 6% -18.3%
15% -24.3% 6% -26.2%
20% -31.8% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$39 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$568
Realized−$213
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses685 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions9
Markets (closed)751 / 760
History coverage150d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 751 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 95¢ 93¢ $405 $398 −$7 (-2%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Paraguay 54¢ 54¢ $107 $106 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Paraguay 14¢ 14¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+4%)
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals No 60¢ 60¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score No 55¢ 55¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 44¢ 44¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Germany to score first vs. Paraguay? No 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals Yes 13¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $38 +$36 +93%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $58 −$58 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $9 +$11 +129%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $9 +$12 +134%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $11 +$9 +86%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $26 +$12 +46%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $9 +$241 +2565%
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jun 14 $99 +$5 +6%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 14 $81 −$7 -9%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $343 +$239 +70%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 31 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 22? May 26 $922 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 22? May 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 20? May 21 $841 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 15? May 18 $348 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 15 $877 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 13? May 14 $272 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 13? May 14 $969 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 12? May 13 $1,240 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 11? May 12 $1,238 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 8? May 11 $1,237 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on May 7? May 08 $1,236 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 6? May 07 $1,235 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 5? May 06 $1,232 +$2 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 04 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 1? May 04 $1,231 +$1 +0%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 01 $1,230 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 1? May 01 $1,228 +$1 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $741 +$1 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $1,216 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 29? Apr 30 $1,224 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 28? Apr 29 $1,220 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 28? Apr 28 $663 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 27? Apr 28 $1,223 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 27? Apr 27 $1,222 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C or below on April 27 Apr 27 $1,222 $0 -0%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $1,220 +$1 +0%
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5) Apr 26 $593 +$1 +0%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs DRX (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha Apr 25 $1,219 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 24? Apr 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $12 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $9 1h
Germany to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY No 26¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $12 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $11 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 54¢ $108 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 14¢ $13 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $38 2d
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL No 94¢ $38 2d
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Haiti 2¢ $0 4d
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Haiti 2¢ $0 4d
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Haiti 2¢ $2 4d
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Haiti 2¢ $5 4d
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Haiti 2¢ $4 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $4 5d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY South Africa 68¢ $12 5d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY South Africa 68¢ $14 5d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $11 5d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 5d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 42¢ $9 5d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $9 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $20 7d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 5¢ $21 7d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $58 7d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 9d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 26¢ $12 9d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $568.27 · official $568.27 (match) · 2270 history records