Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:33:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa49b…7054
weather · 440 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$3,813 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7,392 · open −$5,459
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$103,762
Realized+$7,392
Unrealized−$5,459
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses493 / 155
Open positions96
Markets (closed)648 / 440
Avg bet$117
Trades / day1418.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 96 History 648 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7,392
7 days+$7,392
14 days+$7,392
30 days+$7,392
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 60¢ $29,352 $34,929 +$5,577 (+19%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 40¢ $29,352 $23,775 −$5,577 (-19%)
Will June 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? No 77¢ 95¢ $2,925 $3,607 +$682 (+23%)
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $400 end of June? No 88¢ 88¢ $1,850 $1,840 −$9 (-0%)
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of June? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $1,454 $1,469 +$16 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $1,076 $834 −$242 (-22%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $979 $799 −$180 (-18%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $867 $681 −$186 (-21%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $606 $614 +$8 (+1%)
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in June 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $584 $597 +$12 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $464 $553 +$89 (+19%)
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $482 $486 +$4 (+1%)
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026? No 83¢ 92¢ $433 $479 +$46 (+11%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $437 $469 +$32 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 63¢ 58¢ $377 $348 −$29 (-8%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 54¢ 62¢ $294 $341 +$46 (+16%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $340 $336 −$4 (-1%)
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $647 $262 −$385 (-60%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 54¢ $202 $236 +$35 (+17%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $425 $222 −$203 (-48%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 1? Yes 11¢ 100¢ $22 $201 +$179 (+806%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 18 above $260? No 98¢ 100¢ $196 $200 +$4 (+2%)
Will Apple (AAPL) close at <$250 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 27 – May 1? No 97¢ 100¢ $194 $200 +$6 (+3%)
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of May 18 above $415? No 91¢ 100¢ $182 $200 +$18 (+10%)
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of May 25 above $375? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $168 $200 +$32 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 1? Jun 12 $22 +$179 +809%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 18 above $260? Jun 12 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at <$250 on the final day of trading of the we Jun 12 $194 +$6 +3%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of May 18 above $415? Jun 12 $182 +$18 +10%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of May 25 above $375? Jun 12 $168 +$32 +19%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of April 27 above $440? Jun 12 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of April 27 above $295? Jun 12 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at >$295 on the final day of trading of the we Jun 12 $196 +$4 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 18 above $240? Jun 12 $170 +$30 +18%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of April 27 above $310? Jun 12 $194 +$6 +3%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of May 18 above $370? Jun 12 $194 +$6 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 12 $73 +$228 +314%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of April 27 above $470? Jun 12 $181 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 5? Jun 12 $121 +$67 +55%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ma Jun 12 $155 +$24 +15%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 end of April? Jun 12 $170 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 26? Jun 12 $163 +$11 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 22? Jun 12 $19 +$153 +807%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $230 end of April? Jun 12 $170 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 9? Jun 12 $7 +$169 +2475%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $270 end of April? Jun 12 $166 +$4 +2%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 end of April? Jun 12 $113 +$56 +49%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $230? Jun 12 $156 +$10 +7%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $270 end of April? Jun 12 $161 +$1 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $240 end of April? Jun 12 $135 +$13 +10%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 12 $69 +$121 +176%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 30? Jun 12 $93 +$48 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 29? Jun 12 $8 +$131 +1653%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $315 end of April? Jun 12 $135 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 9? Jun 12 $18 +$117 +659%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on May 12? Jun 12 $110 +$23 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 12? Jun 12 $120 +$11 +9%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of April 27 above $340? Jun 12 $109 +$21 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on May 15? Jun 12 $118 +$8 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 31? Jun 12 $29 +$93 +320%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 1? Jun 12 $89 +$32 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 12 $10 +$108 +1062%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on May 5? Jun 12 $79 +$33 +42%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 9? Jun 12 $108 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 1? Jun 12 $107 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 7? Jun 12 $106 +$6 +6%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2 Jun 12 $7 +$79 +1078%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 9? Jun 12 $32 +$77 +241%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 13? Jun 12 $104 +$5 +5%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of April? Jun 12 $106 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C on May 3? Jun 12 $95 +$13 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 1? Jun 12 $89 +$15 +17%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $300 end of April? Jun 12 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on May 4? Jun 12 $94 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 12? Jun 12 $7 +$93 +1289%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 69% −$5,577
other 19% +$397
weather 9% −$7
tech 3% −$121
culture 0% +$20
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $23 0m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 88¢ $30 1m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $9 9m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? SELL No 81¢ $7 12m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $6 13m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 15m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 81¢ $5 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 81¢ $11 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 81¢ $7 15m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 81¢ $8 15m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 15m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 15m
Will world GDP growth be 3.2% in 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 49¢ $3 16m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $44 16m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 63¢ $4 18m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 59¢ $6 18m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 18m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 63¢ $5 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+86.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 648 +105.7% +86.1% 76% 47% +19.9%
≤30d 648 +105.7% +86.1% 76% 47% +19.9%
≤90d 648 +105.7% +86.1% 76% 47% +19.9%
all 648 +105.7% +86.1% 76% 47% +19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1418.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +86.1% 47% +19.9%
10% ← realistic here +68.3% 33% +8.4%
15% +52.0% 29% -2.1%
20% +37.1% 23% -11.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103,762.14 · official $117,395.40 · 3500 history records