Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:49:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A4 0xa49d…f4e3 world 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 361d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$124 (+13%) realized +$126 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate49%50W / 53L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$40
14 days−$45
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$91
other 25% +$26
tech 5% +$9
crypto 3% +$12
politics 3% +$2
sports 2% −$18
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -2.0% -11.4% 55% 55% -20.4%
≤30d 24 -15.2% -23.3% 46% 46% -23.2%
≤90d 29 +17.2% +6.0% 45% 41% -20.8%
all 103 +6.4% -3.7% 49% 37% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 37% +3.5%
10% -12.9% 32% -6.4%
15% -21.3% 23% -15.4%
20% -29.0% 18% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

361d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$126
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses50 / 53
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)103 / 109
History coverage361d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 40¢ 33¢ $35 $29 −$6 (-18%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $67 −$5 -7%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +70%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 20 $15 −$8 -55%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +70%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 20 $50 −$18 -37%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -51%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $11 +$4 +41%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 $0 -16%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$9 +37%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $51 −$40 -78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $11 −$3 -24%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 +$12 +1158%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? Mar 04 $7 −$5 -74%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $5 −$2 -44%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? Mar 04 $5 $0 -9%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $5 −$3 -52%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 4? Mar 04 $2 −$2 -79%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $5 −$1 -19%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 04 $10 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $25 +$6 +24%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $77 +$92 +119%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Feb 28 $4 −$2 -56%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 28 $3 +$16 +525%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Feb 28 $11 −$2 -16%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 28 $1 +$7 +738%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Feb 28 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? Feb 28 $2 −$1 -26%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? Feb 28 $1 +$1 +64%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $1 $0 -21%
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? Feb 28 $2 −$1 -39%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Feb 28 $1 $0 +22%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Feb 28 $2 −$1 -42%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 28 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 33¢ $21 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 4h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 7h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 18h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 18h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 18h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 17¢ $0 18h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $15 18h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 18h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $10 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 20h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.55 · official $64.99 (match) · 315 history records