Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:24:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4a3…6ad8 crypto 1149 markets active 6d ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$63 (+0%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%653W / 495L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$69
14 days−$102
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$252
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -6.9% -15.8% 60% 59% -15.3%
≤30d 601 -0.8% -10.3% 53% 50% -9.9%
≤90d 1148 -2.5% -11.8% 57% 55% -10.8%
all 1148 -2.5% -11.8% 57% 55% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 55% -10.8%
10% -20.2% 46% -19.3%
15% -27.9% 36% -27.1%
20% -35.0% 28% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses653 / 495
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1148 / 1149
History coverage77d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1148 Trades
no open positions (411 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$11 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $24 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $18 +$11 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $24 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$11 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $19 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$9 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $19 +$10 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $24 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $19 +$10 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$17 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$15 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$7 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $22 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$11 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $22 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$16 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $19 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $24 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $17 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $17 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $23 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2049 history records