Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A4 0xa4a7…bbe9 crypto 208 markets active 10h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-2%) realized −$20 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%116W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$20
14 days−$39
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$61
sports 27% +$14
other 11% +$3
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +0.2% -9.4% 62% 44% -13.0%
≤30d 186 +0.5% -9.1% 59% 48% -13.9%
≤90d 197 -0.2% -9.7% 59% 49% -13.9%
all 197 -0.2% -9.7% 59% 49% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 49% -13.9%
10% -18.3% 37% -22.1%
15% -26.2% 31% -29.6%
20% -33.5% 24% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses116 / 81
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)197 / 208
History coverage38d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 9¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $1 $0 +41%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -56%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 +$2 +14%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 +$8 +388%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -88%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +81%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $8 −$3 -36%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +81%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +91%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +3%
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$1 +4%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$5 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 95¢ $7 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 95¢ $3 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 76¢ $2 13h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 16h
France to score first vs. Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 16h
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 22h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 37h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $14 39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 41h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $5 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $9 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 88¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 65¢ $5 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 96¢ $2 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $4 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $2 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.28 · official $22.29 (match) · 516 history records