Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:17:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa4ad…1014
sports · 69 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$129 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$118 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$252
Realized−$118
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses17 / 39
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions15
Markets (closed)56 / 69
History coverage14d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 15 History 56 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$75
14 days−$118
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Washington Mystics 56¢ 88¢ $23 $36 +$13 (+58%)
United States leading at halftime? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Steve Garcia 44¢ 44¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 54¢ 54¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: United States (-2.5) United States 8¢ 16¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+106%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 48¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-9%)
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Over 55¢ 54¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+52%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 49¢ 18¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-64%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 48¢ 18¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-64%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Over 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Philadelphia Phillies 31¢ 4¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-89%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5) Mavericks 0¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Under 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals Yes 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Derek Cornelius: 1+ assists Yes 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Over 22¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5) Jun 13 $0 +$1 —%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $19 +$30 +155%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Derek Cornelius: 1+ assists Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $10 +$13 +140%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$27 +134%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$12 +41%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 11 $23 +$79 +345%
1H Spread: Knicks (-0.5) Jun 11 $40 +$39 +96%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $5 +$6 +124%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $11 −$2 -17%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $40 +$34 +86%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $102 −$62 -62%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $41 +$41 +101%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $1 +$1 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 04 $1 $0 -7%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $76 −$76 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $79 −$79 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 31 $12 −$12 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 31 $1 $0 -15%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers May 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 30 $9 +$11 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% −$153
other 15% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $27 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 44¢ $23 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 54¢ $22 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 26¢ $1 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 31¢ $10 2h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $25 2h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $20 2h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $5 2h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 BUY Over 55¢ $17 4h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 56¢ $23 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 4h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 8¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $50 4h
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $10 5h
Derek Cornelius: 1+ assists BUY Yes 5¢ $4 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $19 7h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $9 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 31¢ $10 11h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 17¢ $10 25h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 8¢ $11 25h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $5 25h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 1¢ $2 25h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 1¢ $3 25h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $19 27h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $19 27h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 3 Czechia? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 27h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 1¢ $3 27h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $4 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -20.4% -28.0% 33% 33% +4.4%
≤30d 56 -25.0% -32.1% 30% 30% -22.2%
≤90d 56 -25.0% -32.1% 30% 30% -22.2%
all 56 -25.0% -32.1% 30% 30% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 30% -22.2%
10% -38.6% 30% -29.7%
15% -44.5% 30% -36.5%
20% -50.0% 29% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.72 · official $233.47 · 129 history records