Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:05:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4b2…b6c9 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 212d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,505 (+5%) realized +$2,166 · open −$661
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate59%30W / 21L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$576per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$6,059now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 212d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 50% −$359
other 24% +$83
crypto 14% −$32
sports 13% +$1,533
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -41.2% -46.8% 20% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 6 -27.5% -34.4% 33% 17% -3.5%
≤90d 36 -5.3% -14.3% 61% 22% +3.1%
all 51 -4.0% -13.1% 59% 31% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 31% +3.7%
10% -21.4% 27% -6.3%
15% -29.0% 20% -15.3%
20% -36.0% 16% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$71 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$6,059
Realized+$2,166
Unrealized−$661
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses30 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions6
Markets (closed)51 / 56
History coverage212d
Avg bet$576
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 82¢ 73¢ $4,425 $3,955 −$470 (-11%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 80¢ 69¢ $1,598 $1,390 −$208 (-13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $276 $277 +$1 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $240 $235 −$6 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $136 $136 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 44¢ $45 $67 +$22 (+48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will daily volume on Opensea drop below $20M by June 15? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,474 +$26 +2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2,105 −$27 -1%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $240 −$15 -6%
Pistons vs. Hornets May 28 $889 +$363 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 10 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 10 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 10 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 10 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 10 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 10 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 10 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 10 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 10 $102 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 10 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 10 $196 +$1 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Hawks Apr 10 $260 −$10 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Apr 10 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 22 $230 −$228 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 22 $545 +$149 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Mar 22 $400 +$59 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Mar 22 $900 +$22 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Mar 21 $150 −$143 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 21 $258 +$62 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Mar 21 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 21 $103 +$137 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Mar 21 $122 −$114 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 21 $176 +$273 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Mar 21 $13 +$24 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Mar 21 $161 −$160 -99%
Pacers vs. Bucks Mar 21 $1,200 +$1,200 +100%
Jazz vs. Pacers Feb 06 $190 +$310 +163%
Knicks vs. Wizards Feb 06 $595 +$105 +18%
Nuggets vs. Pistons Feb 03 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Feb 03 $480 +$319 +66%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Feb 03 $163 +$57 +35%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Jan 18 $84 −$84 -100%
Hawks vs. Raptors Jan 05 $40 −$40 -100%
Jazz vs. Clippers Jan 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 02 $221 +$79 +36%
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers Dec 16 $36 +$64 +178%
Clippers vs. Rockets Dec 11 $92 −$92 -100%
Spurs vs. Pelicans Dec 11 $79 +$21 +27%
Pelicans vs. Nets Dec 06 $45 −$45 -100%
Knicks vs. Celtics Dec 02 $104 −$104 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $92 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $92 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $92 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 75¢ $753 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $46 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 76¢ $39 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 76¢ $525 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $49 5h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 5h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 5h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 5h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $44 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $68 10h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $436 11h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 22¢ $59 12h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 22¢ $22 12h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 22¢ $2 12h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 22¢ $1 12h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 22¢ $3 12h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 22¢ $1 12h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 22¢ $2 13h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 22¢ $1 13h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 22¢ $14 13h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 22¢ $3 13h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 22¢ $2 13h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 78¢ $390 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,059.43 · official $6,051.52 (match) · 450 history records