Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A4 0xa4b2…14ae other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$343 (+18%) realized +$499 · open −$156
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$389
sports 14% +$564
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.2% -6.6% 38% 38% +11.5%
≤30d 8 +3.2% -6.6% 38% 38% +11.5%
≤90d 8 +3.2% -6.6% 38% 38% +11.5%
all 8 +3.2% -6.6% 38% 38% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 38% +11.5%
10% -15.6% 38% +0.8%
15% -23.7% 38% -8.9%
20% -31.2% 38% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$336 vs −$135 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized+$499
Unrealized−$156
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $323 $316 −$7 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 22¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $126 +$408 +324%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $142 +$155 +109%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $484 +$444 +92%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $307 −$301 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $128 −$125 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $75 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $256 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 22¢ $154 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $534 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $298 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $142 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $126 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $927 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $305 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $92 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $179 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $215 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $128 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.61 · official $316.61 (match) · 16 history records