Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:10:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
A4 0xa4b5…d37b sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$102 (+30%) realized +$34 · open +$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$131
other 15% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +30.2% +17.8% 67% 67% +25.2%
≤30d 6 +30.2% +17.8% 67% 67% +25.2%
≤90d 6 +30.2% +17.8% 67% 67% +25.2%
all 6 +30.2% +17.8% 67% 67% +25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.8% 67% +25.2%
10% +6.6% 67% +13.2%
15% -3.7% 67% +2.3%
20% -13.2% 67% -7.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$34 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 100¢ $60 $105 +$45 (+75%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 56¢ 99¢ $30 $53 +$23 (+77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$35 +69%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$20 +97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 +$48 +119%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 −$58 -96%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $71 +$63 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $30 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $61 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 4h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Austria 1¢ $0 41h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 43h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 25¢ $10 43h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $41 43h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 2¢ $3 44h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 17¢ $10 44h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $51 46h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $134 47h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 45¢ $20 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 56¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.38 · official $158.38 (match) · 17 history records