Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4b8…4bbe crypto 780 markets active 6d ago coverage 120d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 119d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-1%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate53%415W / 365L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$48
14 days−$69
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$201
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -13.9% -22.1% 33% 20% -23.3%
≤30d 87 -11.6% -20.0% 28% 16% -18.2%
≤90d 128 -11.9% -20.3% 30% 16% -17.7%
all 780 +4.9% -5.1% 53% 29% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 29% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 16% -20.3%
15% -22.5% 10% -28.0%
20% -30.1% 6% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses415 / 365
Open positions0
Markets (closed)780 / 780
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 780 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$5 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 05 $32 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 05 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 04 $11 −$3 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records