Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:58:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa4bf…e61e
crypto · 65 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$131 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$131 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses27 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage99d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 65 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$81
14 days−$133
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$14 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$4 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $100 −$54 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 09 $128 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $86 −$37 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $105 +$18 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $114 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $110 −$87 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 09 $40 −$26 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 09 $135 −$86 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 09 $105 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $107 −$56 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 09 $103 −$69 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 09 $109 +$18 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $111 +$25 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 09 $116 +$27 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 09 $101 −$81 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $99 −$39 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 09 $134 +$44 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $120 −$71 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $110 +$98 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 09 $122 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 09 $103 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $110 −$21 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 09 $129 +$28 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 09 $98 −$73 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $111 +$112 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $6 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $7 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $6 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -14.0% -22.2% 43% 38% -11.5%
≤30d 64 -15.3% -23.3% 41% 36% -12.4%
≤90d 64 -15.3% -23.3% 41% 36% -12.4%
all 65 -14.7% -22.9% 42% 37% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 37% -12.4%
10% -30.2% 28% -20.8%
15% -37.0% 15% -28.4%
20% -43.2% 12% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 746 history records